State politics
Victoria
Victorians elect all 88 members of the Legislative Assembly on 28 November 2026. The date is fixed in the Electoral Act, not chosen by the premier. Below is every published poll of Assembly voting intention, shown with the uncertainty attached.
Across 60 published Victorian polls, with fieldwork to 16 August 2026, the trend has Coalition on 27.9%, Labor on 25.3%, One Nation on 23.5%, Greens on 12.7% and Others on 10.4% of the first-preference vote, with $4,631,769 in donations disclosed since the 2022 election. The trend is estimated at 16 August 2026, the midpoint of the most recent fieldwork.
Primary vote trend
60 polls from 8 polling organisations, fieldwork between 15 February 2023 and 16 August 2026.
Preferred premier
17 questions, as publishedWhich person voters would rather have in the job, which is a different question from which party they would vote for. Victoria has changed opposition leader three times over these polls and Labor's leadership has now changed too, so each pairing is a separate series rather than one line — the question changed, not only the answers.
Most recent reading, by pollster
Different pollsters offer different people and give an undecided option different prominence, so their figures are not directly comparable with each other. Who each one has ahead is.
- Resolve16 August 2026 · n=1,000Wilson 26Carroll 20Pickering 10unsure 44
- Roy Morgan7 August 2026 · n=2,084Carroll 46.5Wilson 35.5Pickering 16unsure 2
- RedBridge/Accent1 August 2026 · n=1,014Wilson 32Carroll 19unsure 49
- Newspoll26 July 2026 · n=1,035Wilson 51Allan 32unsure 17
- Freshwater8 June 2026 · n=1,034nothing newer from themWilson 49Allan 25unsure 26
- DemosAU/Premier National10 February 2026 · n=1,274nothing newer from themWilson 40Allan 31unsure 29
Carroll v Pickering v Wilson2 polls · Wilson ahead in 1, Carroll ahead in 1
| Fieldwork to | Pollster | Carroll | Pickering | Wilson | Unsure | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 August 2026 | Resolve | 20% | 10% | 26% | 44% | 1,000 |
| 7 August 2026 | Roy Morgan | 46.5% | 16% | 35.5% | 2% | 2,084 |
Carroll v Wilson1 poll · Wilson ahead in 1
| Fieldwork to | Pollster | Carroll | Wilson | Unsure | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 August 2026 | RedBridge/Accent | 19% | 32% | 49% | 1,014 |
Allan v Wilson14 polls · Wilson ahead in 14
| Fieldwork to | Pollster | Allan | Wilson | Unsure | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 July 2026 | Newspoll | 32% | 51% | 17% | 1,035 |
| 12 July 2026 | Resolve | 24% | 43% | 33% | 1,000 |
| May–June 2026 | Resolve | 20% | 39% | 41% | 1,000 |
| 8 June 2026 | Freshwater | 25% | 49% | 26% | 1,034 |
| March–April 2026 | Resolve | 20% | 39% | 41% | 1,047 |
| 24 April 2026 | Roy Morgan | 42% | 53% | 5% | 1,707 |
| 23 March 2026 | Freshwater | 31% | 47% | 22% | 1,062 |
| 23 February 2026 | Freshwater | 30% | 46% | 24% | 1,030 |
| 16 February 2026 | Roy Morgan | 42.5% | 51% | 6.5% | 2,462 |
| 14 February 2026 | Resolve | 20% | 39% | 41% | 1,100 |
| 10 February 2026 | DemosAU/Premier National | 31% | 40% | 29% | 1,274 |
| 7 December 2025 | Resolve | 24% | 41% | 35% | 1,000 |
| 24 November 2025 | Freshwater | 31% | 47% | 22% | 1,220 |
| 20 November 2025 | Newspoll | 33% | 47% | 20% | 1,030 |
Earlier leadership pairings21 questions · Allan v Battin, Allan v Pesutto, Andrews v Pesutto
Pollsters stop asking about a pairing once someone in it is no longer leader, so these series simply end. They are kept because they were really published, and held apart because a question about a former leader does not describe the contest now.
Allan v Battin8 polls · Battin ahead in 8
| Fieldwork to | Pollster | Allan | Battin | Unsure | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 November 2025 | Freshwater | 34% | 45% | 21% | 1,217 |
| 27 October 2025 | DemosAU/Premier National | 32% | 40% | 28% | 1,016 |
| 12 October 2025 | Resolve | 27% | 33% | 40% | 1,000 |
| 9 September 2025 | DemosAU/Premier National | 32% | 37% | 31% | 1,327 |
| 30 June 2025 | Newspoll | 36% | 41% | 23% | 1,000 |
| 30 March 2025 | Resolve | 23% | 36% | 41% | 1,000 |
| 21 March 2025 | DemosAU/Premier National | 30% | 43% | 27% | 1,006 |
| December 2024 – January 2025 | Resolve | 27% | 36% | 37% | 1,124 |
Allan v Pesutto7 polls · Allan ahead in 6, Pesutto ahead in 1
| Fieldwork to | Pollster | Allan | Pesutto | Unsure | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 November 2024 | Resolve | 29% | 30% | 41% | 1,000 |
| 7 September 2024 | Resolve | 30% | 29% | 41% | 1,054 |
| 14 July 2024 | Resolve | 31% | 28% | 41% | 1,000 |
| 19 May 2024 | Resolve | 31% | 26% | 43% | 1,000 |
| 24 March 2024 | Resolve | 34% | 25% | 41% | 1,100 |
| 3 December 2023 | Resolve | 34% | 22% | 44% | 1,100 |
| September–October 2023 | Resolve | 38% | 19% | 43% | 1,100 |
Andrews v Pesutto6 polls · Andrews ahead in 6
| Fieldwork to | Pollster | Andrews | Pesutto | Unsure | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July–August 2023 | Resolve | 41% | 32% | 27% | 1,100 |
| 20 July 2023 | Roy Morgan | 52.5% | 47.5% | not reported | 1,046 |
| May–June 2023 | Resolve | 49% | 26% | 25% | 1,003 |
| 22 May 2023 | Roy Morgan | 64% | 36% | not reported | 2,095 |
| 22 April 2023 | Resolve | 49% | 28% | 23% | 1,609 |
| 18 February 2023 | Resolve | 50% | 26% | 24% | 825 |
How to read these
- A leader’s score depends on who else was offered. The same leader in the same month scores differently in a two-way question and a three-way one, so those are listed separately and never averaged. There is no combined line here because no pollster published one.
- Pollsters differ in how prominently they offer an undecided option, and the more prominent it is the lower every leader scores. Compare the gap between leaders within a poll, not a leader’s number across pollsters.
- This is not voting intention, and it is not a seat projection. It asks which person a respondent prefers, which is a different question from which party they would vote for.
Figures are facts published by the named polling organisations; where available each record links to that organisation's own release. Table structure and aggregation sourced from Wikipedia, 'Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election' (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Who is funding the campaign
Disclosed within 21 daysVictoria requires a donation of $1,290 or more to be disclosed within 21 days, and publishes it straight away. The same donation made to a federal party would sit in an annual return until the February after the financial year ends. That is why this section shows money arriving during the campaign rather than after it — the register held 3,901 donations when it was retrieved on 31 July 2026, the most recent dated 29 July 2026.
Largest recipients, whole register
- AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY - VICTORIAN BRANCH$3,340,5711,445 donations · $14,708 not money
- LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIAN DIVISION$2,139,254725 donations · $15,797 not money
- Australian Greens Victoria$611,438439 donations · $86,574 not money
- NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIA$379,972169 donations · $9,937 not money
- Sophie Torney$318,24061 donations · $35,000 not money
- Paul Hopper$283,90024 donations
- Shima Ibuki$255,12018 donations
- VICTORIAN SOCIALISTS$188,82874 donations
- Anthony Lupton$182,04019 donations
- Kate Lardner$131,98047 donations · $21,555 not money
Largest donors
- Climate 200 Pty Ltd$373,71210×
- Paul Hopper$296,57027×
- Anthony Lupton$156,9909×
- Maya Tesa$132,97817×
- Jason McClintock$110,0002×
- Malik Zaveer$70,0004×
- Sophie Torney$55,0003×
- Darren Natale$54,74916×
Most recent
- Justice Services$3,500to AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY - VICTORIAN BRANCH · 29 Jul
- Tommy Clarke$2,000to Australian Greens Victoria · 29 Jul
- David Hall$5,000to Shima Ibuki · 28 Jul
- Michael Gunter$1,500to Australian Greens Victoria · 28 Jul
- Marcus Freeman$5,150to LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIAN DIVISION · 27 Jul
- Matthew Townsend$1,500to Australian Greens Victoria · 24 Jul
- Ken Phillips$1,500to LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIAN DIVISION · 23 Jul
- Sarah Freeman$5,150to LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA - VICTORIAN DIVISION · 23 Jul
What this register does and does not say
- A donation is disclosed twice, once by the donor and once by the recipient, and the register calls a record reconciled only once both have lodged. An unreconciled record is one side's account of a donation the other has not yet confirmed. It is published here with its status attached, never dropped and never treated as settled.
- Each side supplies its own date, so an unreconciled record carries only that side's. Where the donor has not lodged there is no date the donation was made, and the date shown is the date the recipient says they received it. Which one is being shown is recorded on every record rather than left to be guessed.
- Not every donation is money. The register also records property, services and loans, which are valued rather than paid. They are counted separately from cash rather than added into a single total that would read as money received.
- Only donations at or above the disclosure threshold appear. The threshold is indexed and has changed over the period covered, so a count of donations is not a measure of how many people gave.
- The Party column is empty for a donation to an independent candidate or member. That is a fact about the recipient, not a missing value.
- This is the register as at the retrieval date on this page. Victoria's 21-day rule means a donation made in the last three weeks may not be disclosed yet, so the most recent weeks always undercount.
Source: Victorian Electoral Commission — disclosed donations. Victorian Electoral Commission, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (DataVic Access Policy).
What happened last time
First preferences at the 26 November 2022 election. This is a measurement, not a poll — it carries no sampling error, so it is held apart from the trend above rather than drawn into it.
Source: Victorian Electoral Commission.
Known limitations of this dataset
- One Nation is not reported before 10 February 2026
These tables carried no One Nation column until then, so earlier polls record it as not reported rather than as zero — its support in those years is inside Others. The line starts partway along the chart because that is when pollsters began publishing the figure, not because the vote appeared that week.
- Lower house only
Legislative Council polling is published but excluded here. The upper house is elected by proportional representation from multi-member regions, so a statewide share means something different there and is not comparable with these figures.
- Freshwater · fieldwork to 8 Jun
Reported primary votes sum to 98.0%, not 100% — transcribed as published.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 7 Dec
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 8 Dec
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Freshwater · fieldwork to 24 Nov
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Newspoll · fieldwork to 20 Nov
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Freshwater · fieldwork to 17 Nov
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- DemosAU/Premier National · fieldwork to 27 Oct
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 12 Oct
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 14 Oct
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 11 Sep
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- DemosAU/Premier National · fieldwork to 9 Sep
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 17 Aug
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Newspoll · fieldwork to 30 Jun
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 30 Jun
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 30 Mar
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 2 Apr
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- DemosAU/Premier National · fieldwork to 21 Mar
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 31 Jan
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 20 Nov
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 10 Nov
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 3 Oct
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 18 Sep
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 7 Sep
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Wolf & Smith · fieldwork to 29 Aug
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 5 Aug
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 14 Jul
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 7 Jun
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 19 May
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 24 Mar
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 20 Mar
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 12 Dec
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 3 Dec
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 31 Oct
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- RedBridge/Accent · fieldwork to 14 Sep
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 31 Aug
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Roy Morgan · fieldwork to 20 Jul
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 30 Jun
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Roy Morgan · fieldwork to 22 May
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 22 Apr
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
- Resolve · fieldwork to 18 Feb
Not reported by this pollster: onp. Recorded as null, never estimated.
Poll figures are facts published by the named polling organisations; where available each record links to that organisation's own release. Table structure and aggregation sourced from Wikipedia, 'Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election' (CC BY-SA 4.0).